Fund Universe

The user wants a 13F portfolio forensics analysis on Providence Financial Advisors, LLC for 2025Q4-2026Q2. Let me parse the data carefully.

First, I need to understand the data structure. The data shows holdings across three quarters: 2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2. The user says 2025Q4 is left-censored (every position mechanically "NEW") and to ignore its action column, use as baseline only. All inferences start at 2025Q4+1 (i.e., 2026Q1).

Key rules: - Split value change into Δshares (decision) vs price (not). Rank conviction on Δshares and weights only. - If share counts absent, say so and mark conviction claims low-confidence. Here we have delta_shares column. - Before calling buy/sell, rule out splits, spinoffs, mergers, ticker changes, acquisitions, sub-threshold drops. - 13F = long US-listed equity, 45-day lag. No shorts, most derivatives, foreign listings, commodities, private, debt, cash. Call it "reportable sleeve". - Compute tables with formulas: position count and gross value QoQ, top-5/10 weight and HHI, turnover proxy, bridge (opening → flow → price → closing; state ticker mapping), conviction rank by cumulative Δshares cross-tabbed vs weight and vs adding into strength/weakness, new/exited/±25% scaled.

Need to compute: 1. Position count and gross value QoQ 2. Top-5/10 weight and HHI 3. Turnover proxy = Σ|Δshares|×quarter-end price ÷ avg value (lower bound) 4. Bridge analysis with ticker mapping 5. Conviction rank by cumulative Δshares 6. New/exited/±25% scaled

Then answer 6 questions with epistemics labels.

Let me first parse the data and identify tickers. There's a CUSIP:30231G102 - that's Fiserv (FI) actually. 30231G102 is Fiserv Inc. So I'll map that to FI.

Also need to identify all tickers and their sectors/sub-sectors.

Let me list all unique tickers: AAPL, AMZN, AVLV, AVXC, BA, BRKB, CAH, CAT, CMI, CUSIP:30231G102 (FI), CSCO, CVX, DE, DVY, ED, EPD, EVRG, EVSM, FBCG, FENI, GE, GLTR, GMUB, GOOGL, GSST, HD, IBM, INTC, ISMD, IUSG, IVV, IWF, IWM, IWY, JIRE, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, MDY, MMM, MO, MRK, MSFT, NEE, NVDA, O, OKE, ORCL, PAA, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, PSQA, PSQO, QQQ, QUAL, SCHM, SDY, SLB, SLYV, SPDW, SPY, SPYG, SPYV, T, TSLA, VZ, WELL, WMT

Many of these are ETFs: - AVLV: Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF - AVXC: Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF? Actually AVXC is Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF - DVY: iShares Select Dividend ETF - EPD: Enterprise Products Partners (MLP, not ETF) - EVRG: Evergy Inc (utility) - EVSM: Probably an ETF? Need to check. Might be ESG related. - FBCG: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF - FENI: Not sure, maybe an ETF - GLTR: SPDR Gold Shares? No, GLD is gold. GLTR is SPDR Long Dollar Gold Trust? Actually GLTR is abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF - GMUB: Goldman Sachs Municipal Bond ETF? Actually GMUB is Goldman Sachs Muni Bond ETF - GSST: Goldman Sachs TreasuryAccess 0-1 Year ETF? Actually GSST is Goldman Sachs TreasuryAccess 0-1 Year ETF - IUSG: iShares Core S&P US Growth ETF - IVV: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF - IWF: iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF - IWM: iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWY: iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF - ISMD: Inspire Small/Mid Cap ETF? Actually ISMD is Inspire Small/Mid Cap Impact ETF - JIRE: JPMorgan Income ETF? Actually JIRE is JPMorgan Income ETF - MDY: SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF - PSQA: Not sure - maybe Pacer Swan SOS Fund? Actually PSQA is Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF - PSQO: Pacer Swan SOS Conservative (July) ETF? Actually PSQO is Pacer Swan SOS Conservative (July) ETF - QQQ: Invesco QQQ Trust - QUAL: iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF - SCHM: Schwab US Mid-Cap ETF - SDY: SPDR S&P Dividend ETF - SLYV: SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF - SPDW: SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF - SPY: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust - SPYG: SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF - SPYV: SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF

And individual stocks: AAPL, AMZN, BA, BRKB, CAH, CAT, CMI, CSCO, CVX, DE, ED, EPD, EVRG, GE, HD, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, MMM, MO, MRK, MSFT, NEE, NVDA, O (Realty Income), OKE, ORCL, PAA, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, T, TSLA, VZ, WELL, WMT

And CUSIP:30231G102 = FI (Fiserv)

Now, the data shows weight_pct and prev_weight_pct for each quarter. These are 13F value-weight fractions of that quarter's reportable sleeve.

I need to compute: 1. Position count and gross value QoQ 2. Top-5/10 weight and HHI 3. Turnover proxy 4. Bridge analysis 5. Conviction rank

Let me start by organizing the data by quarter.

First, 2025Q4 (baseline): - Many positions with actions but we ignore action column for 2025Q4 - Weights given

2026Q1: - Actions and weights

2026Q2: - Actions and weights

The delta_shares column shows change in shares from previous quarter.

For bridge analysis: opening → flow → price → closing - Opening value = prev_weight_pct * previous total portfolio value - But we don't have total portfolio value. We only have weights. - However, we can work with weights directly since they're percentages of the reportable sleeve. - Flow = Δshares * price (but we don't have prices) - Price effect = change due to price movement - Closing value = weight_pct * current total portfolio value

Since we don't have absolute portfolio values or share prices, we can't compute exact dollar flows. But we can compute weight changes and infer.

The turnover proxy formula: Σ|Δshares|×quarter-end price ÷ avg value (lower bound) We don't have prices or portfolio values. So we can't compute this exactly. We'll need to note this limitation.

For conviction rank by cumulative Δshares: we can sum Δshares across quarters for each ticker (2026Q1 + 2026Q2, since 2025Q4 is baseline).

Let me compute cumulative Δshares for each ticker from 2026Q1 and 2026Q2.

First, let me create a structured dataset.

I'll write Python-like pseudocode to compute things, but since I'm doing this manually, I'll compute key metrics.

Let me first list all positions per quarter with weights.

2025Q4 weights (baseline): AAPL: 0.2536 AMZN: 0.3543 AVLV: 15.0417 BA: 0.4012 BRKB: 0.2506 CAH: 0.2099 CAT: 1.8693 CMI: 0.3803 CUSIP:30231G102 (FI): 1.0946 DE: 0.8821 EPD: 0.2013 EVRG: 0.3109 FBCG: 7.3635 GE: 0.2390 GLTR: 0.3262 HD: 0.6022 IBM: 0.6085 ISMD: 0.4820 IUSG: 0.3684 IVV: 22.6180 IWF: 0.8232 IWM: 0.7314 IWY: 6.8128 JIRE: 8.3468 JNJ: 1.2779 JPM: 0.2355 KO: 0.4202 LLY: 3.5881 MDY: 3.1239 MMM: 0.2874 MO: 0.2346 MRK: 0.4033 MSFT: 4.3121 NEE: 0.3214 NVDA: 0.2051 O: 0.0000 (EXIT) ORCL: 0.4484 PAA: 0.2160 PFE: 0.2697 PG: 0.8888 PM: 0.6398 PSQA: 0.0000 (EXIT) PSQO: 0.4052 QQQ: 0.4744 QUAL: 0.2684 SCHM: 0.2494 SDY: 0.0000 (EXIT) SLB: 0.2209 SLYV: 0.2275 SPDW: 0.3586 SPY: 8.7765 SPYG: 0.2998 SPYV: 0.2336 T: 0.4116 TSLA: 0.2556 VZ: 0.0000 (EXIT) WELL: 0.3743

Wait, O, PSQA, SDY, VZ show weight 0.0000 and action EXIT in 2025Q4. But 2025Q4 is baseline - they must have been held in 2025Q3 and exited in 2025Q4. Since 2025Q4 is left-censored, we don't see 2025Q3. So these positions existed before but were sold in 2025Q4. For our analysis starting at 2025Q4+1 (2026Q1), these are not in the portfolio at 2025Q4 end.

Similarly, BRKB, CAH, EPD, EVRG, GE, NVDA, SLB, TSLA show NEW in 2025Q4 but we ignore action - they're just positions at 2025Q4 end.

Now 2026Q1 weights: AAPL: 0.2527 AMZN: 0.2601 AVLV: 9.6624 AVXC: 1.2647 (NEW) BA: 0.2146 BRKB: 0.1611 CAH: 0.1261 CAT: 1.3316 CMI: 0.2315 CUSIP:30231G102: 0.9086 CVX: 0.1374 (NEW) DE: 0.6141 DVY: 0.1208 (NEW) ED: 0.1148 (NEW) EPD: 0.1373 EVRG: 0.2018 FBCG: 4.2319 GE: 0.1347 GLTR: 0.1983 GSST: 32.1008 (NEW) - HUGE position! HD: 0.3394 IBM: 0.2922 ISMD: 0.3265 IUSG: 0.1945 IVV: 12.5955 IWF: 0.3125 IWM: 0.4211 IWY: 3.9347 JIRE: 5.1867 JNJ: 0.8843 JPM: 0.1475 KO: 0.2727 LLY: 1.6543 MDY: 1.6698 MMM: 0.1525 MO: 0.1551 MRK: 0.2738 MSFT: 1.8417 NEE: 0.2208 NVDA: 0.2376 OKE: 0.1271 (NEW) ORCL: 0.2010 PAA: 0.1534 PEP: 0.1198 (NEW) PFE: 0.1751 PG: 0.5076 PM: 0.3769 PSQA: 2.8552 (NEW) PSQO: 5.9541 QQQ: 0.2547 QUAL: 0.1481 SCHM: 0.0000 (EXIT) SLB: 0.1669 SLYV: 0.1277 SPDW: 0.0000 (EXIT) SPY: 4.4082 SPYG: 0.0000 (EXIT) SPYV: 0.0000 (EXIT) T: 0.2747 TSLA: 0.1528 VZ: 0.1235 (NEW) WELL: 0.2205 WMT: 0.1339 (NEW)

2026Q2 weights: AAPL: 0.2792 AMZN: 0.2967 AVLV: 11.7031 AVXC: 3.3393 BA: 0.2330 BRKB: 0.1688 CAH: 0.1416 CAT: 1.9970 CMI: 0.3063 CSCO: 0.1483 (NEW) CUSIP:30231G102: 0.7303 CVX: 0.0000 (EXIT) DE: 0.6902 DVY: 0.1245 ED: 0.0000 (EXIT) EPD: 0.1331 EVRG: 0.2126 EVSM: 0.3469 (NEW) FBCG: 5.7711 FENI: 0.3439 (NEW) GE: 0.1773 GLTR: 0.1639 GMUB: 0.2813 (NEW) GOOGL: 0.1281 (NEW) GSST: 19.1487 HD: 0.3629 IBM: 0.3380 INTC: 0.1500 (NEW) ISMD: 0.4747 IUSG: 0.2354 IVV: 14.8276 IWF: 0.3658 IWM: 0.4957 IWY: 5.0277 JIRE: 6.1835 JNJ: 0.9170 JPM: 0.1629 KO: 0.2909 LLY: 1.8399 MDY: 1.6872 MMM: 0.1696 MO: 0.1688 MRK: 0.2775 MSFT: 1.8503 NEE: 0.2083 NVDA: 0.2755 OKE: 0.1214 ORCL: 0.1998 PAA: 0.1527 PEP: 0.0000 (EXIT) PFE: 0.1499 PG: 0.5144 PM: 0.4116 PSQA: 2.7810 PSQO: 6.1271 QQQ: 0.3243 QUAL: 0.1691 SLB: 0.1513 SLYV: 0.0000 (EXIT) SPY: 4.9907 T: 0.1829 TSLA: 0.1730 VZ: 0.0000 (EXIT) WELL: 0.2537 WMT: 0.1228

Now, let me compute position counts: 2025Q4: Count non-zero weight positions. Exclude those with weight 0.0000 (O, PSQA, SDY, VZ). But they have delta_shares negative, meaning they were sold during 2025Q4. Since 2025Q4 is baseline, we consider positions at end of 2025Q4. So count positions with weight > 0.

Let me count 2025Q4 positions with weight > 0: AAPL, AMZN, AVLV, BA, BRKB, CAH, CAT, CMI, FI, DE, EPD, EVRG, FBCG, GE, GLTR, HD, IBM, ISMD, IUSG, IVV, IWF, IWM, IWY, JIRE, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, MDY, MMM, MO, MRK, MSFT, NEE, NVDA, ORCL, PAA, PFE, PG, PM, PSQO, QQQ, QUAL, SCHM, SLB, SLYV, SPDW, SPY, SPYG, SPYV, T, TSLA, WELL

That's 52 positions? Let me count carefully.

List: 1. AAPL 2. AMZN 3. AVLV 4. BA 5. BRKB 6. CAH 7. CAT 8. CMI 9. FI (CUSIP) 10. DE 11. EPD 12. EVRG 13. FBCG 14. GE 15. GLTR 16. HD 17. IBM 18. ISMD 19. IUSG 20. IVV 21. IWF 22. IWM 23. IWY 24. JIRE 25. JNJ 26. JPM 27. KO 28. LLY 29. MDY 30. MMM 31. MO 32. MRK 33. MSFT 34. NEE 35. NVDA 36. ORCL 37. PAA 38. PFE 39. PG 40. PM 41. PSQO 42. QQQ 43. QUAL 44. SCHM 45. SLB 46. SLYV 47. SPDW 48. SPY 49. SPYG 50. SPYV 51. T 52. TSLA 53. WELL

53 positions at end of 2025Q4.

2026Q1: Count non-zero weights. New positions: AVXC, CVX, DVY, ED, GSST, OKE, PEP, PSQA, VZ, WMT. Exited: SCHM, SPDW, SPYG, SPYV. Also O, PSQA, SDY, VZ were already 0 in 2025Q4.

2026Q1 positions (weight > 0): From 2025Q4 continuing (53 - 4 exited = 49) + 10 new = 59? Let me count from list above.

Actually from my 2026Q1 list above, I have many. Let me count: AAPL, AMZN, AVLV, AVXC, BA, BRKB, CAH, CAT, CMI, FI, CVX, DE, DVY, ED, EPD, EVRG, FBCG, GE, GLTR, GSST, HD, IBM, ISMD, IUSG, IVV, IWF, IWM, IWY, JIRE, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, MDY, MMM, MO, MRK, MSFT, NEE, NVDA, OKE, ORCL, PAA, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, PSQA, PSQO, QQQ, QUAL, SLB, SLYV, SPY, T, TSLA, VZ, WELL, WMT

That's 59 positions.

2026Q2: New: CSCO, EVSM, FENI, GMUB, GOOGL, INTC. Exited: CVX, ED, PEP, SLYV, VZ. Also SCHM, SPDW, SPYG, SPYV already exited.

2026Q2 positions: From 2026Q1 (59) - 5 exited + 6 new = 60 positions.

Now gross value QoQ: We don't have absolute portfolio value, only weights. But weights sum to 100% each quarter (should). Let me verify.

2025Q4 weights sum: Let me approximate. IVV 22.6, AVLV 15.0, SPY 8.8, JIRE 8.3, FBCG 7.4, IWY 6.8, MSFT 4.3, LLY 3.6, MDY 3.1, GSST not yet... wait GSST is new in 2026Q1.

Actually 2025Q4 doesn't have GSST. Let me sum major ones: IVV 22.62 AVLV 15.04 SPY 8.78 JIRE 8.35 FBCG 7.36 IWY 6.81 MSFT 4.31 LLY 3.59 MDY 3.12 IWF 0.82 IWM 0.73 HD 0.60 IBM 0.61 PG 0.89 PM 0.64 CAT 1.87 JNJ 1.28 FI 1.09 GLTR 0.33 NEE 0.32 EVRG 0.31 SPYG 0.30 SPYV 0.23 QUAL 0.27 PFE 0.27 WELL 0.37 SLYV 0.23 SCHM 0.25 PAA 0.22 SLB 0.22 EPD 0.20 CAH 0.21 BRKB 0.25 TSLA 0.26 AAPL 0.25 BA 0.40 GE 0.24 AMZN 0.35 CMI 0.38 DE 0.88 KO 0.42 MMM 0.29 MO 0.23 MRK 0.40 ORCL 0.45 JPM 0.24 QQQ 0.47 ISMD 0.48 IUSG 0.37 NVDA 0.21 T 0.41 PSQO 0.41

Sum roughly: 22.6+15.0+8.8+8.3+7.4+6.8+4.3+3.6+3.1 = 79.9% Plus others ~20% = ~100%. Good.

2026Q1 has GSST at 32.1%! That's massive. Let me check sum: GSST 32.10 IVV 12.60 AVLV 9.66 JIRE 5.19 PSQO 5.95 FBCG 4.23 SPY 4.41 IWY 3.93 MSFT 1.84 MDY 1.67 LLY 1.65 AVXC 1.26 FI 0.91 JNJ 0.88 CAT 1.33 PG 0.51 PM 0.38 PSQA 2.86 Others...

32.1+12.6+9.7+5.2+6.0+4.2+4.4+3.9+1.8+1.7+1.7+1.3+0.9+0.9+1.3+0.5+0.4+2.9 = ~89% Plus many small positions = ~100%. OK.

2026Q2: GSST 19.15 IVV 14.83 AVLV 11.70 JIRE 6.18 PSQO 6.13 FBCG 5.77 SPY 4.99 IWY 5.03 AVXC 3.34 MSFT 1.85 LLY 1.84 CAT 2.00 MDY 1.69 FI 0.73 JNJ 0.92 PG 0.51 PM 0.41 PSQA 2.78 Others...

19.2+14.8+11.7+6.2+6.1+5.8+5.0+5.0+3.3+1.9+1.8+2.0+1.7+0.7+0.9+0.5+0.4+2.8 = ~89.5% Plus others = ~100%.

Key observation: GSST (Goldman Sachs TreasuryAccess 0-1 Year ETF) appears in 2026Q1 at 32.1% weight, then trimmed to 19.1% in 2026Q2. This is a ultra-short Treasury ETF. Massive allocation suggests cash management or defensive positioning.

Also PSQO (Pacer Swan SOS Conservative July ETF) grows from 0.4% to 6.0% to 6.1% - structured outcome ETF.

PSQA (Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds) appears 2.9% then 2.8%.

FBCG (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth) trimmed from 7.4% to 4.2% to 5.8%.

AVLV (Avantis US Large Cap Value) trimmed from 15.0% to 9.7% then added to 11.7%.

IVV (iShares Core S&P 500) trimmed from 22.6% to 12.6% then added to 14.8%.

SPY trimmed from 8.8% to 4.4% to 5.0%.

IWY trimmed from 6.8% to 3.9% then added to 5.0%.

JIRE added from 8.3% to 5.2% to 6.2%.

So major rotation: Out of IVV, SPY, FBCG, IWY, AVLV (initially) into GSST, PSQO, PSQA, and then back into AVLV, IVV, IWY, JIRE.

Now let me compute cumulative Δshares for conviction rank.

Δshares data:

2026Q1 Δshares (from 2025Q4 to 2026Q1): AAPL: +812 AMZN: +652 AVLV: +11260 AVXC: +32813 (NEW) BA: +39 BRKB: +90 CAH: +23 CAT: +26 CMI: +8 FI: +277 CVX: +1165 (NEW) DE: +13 DVY: +1400 (NEW) ED: +1779 (NEW) EPD: +69 EVRG: +21 FBCG: +13514 GE: +55 GLTR: 0 GSST: +1114284 (NEW) - HUGE HD: +56 IBM: +55 ISMD: +1806 IUSG: 0 IVV: +722 IWF: -458 IWM: 0 IWY: +3078 JIRE: +8385 JNJ: +156 JPM: +147 KO: +265 LLY: -192 MDY: -442 MMM: +42 MO: +44 MRK: +152 MSFT: -211 NEE: +156 NVDA: +1288 OKE: +2468 (NEW) ORCL: +90 PAA: 0 PEP: +1353 (NEW) PFE: +82 PG: -52 PM: 0 PSQA: +245109 (NEW) PSQO: +489440 QQQ: 0 QUAL: 0 SCHM: -8318 (EXIT) SLB: -72 SLYV: -138 SPDW: -8098 (EXIT) SPY: -1012 SPYG: -2817 (EXIT) SPYV: -4123 (EXIT) T: +12 TSLA: +151 VZ: +4315 (NEW) WELL: -65 WMT: +1890 (NEW)

2026Q2 Δshares (from 2026Q1 to 2026Q2): AAPL: -51 AMZN: -2 AVLV: +15260 AVXC: +35734 BA: 0 BRKB: +3 CAH: +1 CAT: -1 CMI: 0 CSCO: +2219 (NEW) FI: -7 CVX: -1165 (EXIT) DE: 0 DVY: 0 ED: -1779 (EXIT) EPD: 0 EVRG: +3 EVSM: +12124 (NEW) FBCG: +15204 FENI: +15068 (NEW) GE: +1 GLTR: 0 GMUB: +9616 (NEW) GOOGL: +630 (NEW) GSST: -448614 HD: -2 IBM: -2 INTC: +1889 (NEW) ISMD: +2361 IUSG: 0 IVV: +975 IWF: +3894 IWM: -79 IWY: +2670 JIRE: +11629 JNJ: 0 JPM: -5 KO: 0 LLY: -459 MDY: -533 MMM: 0 MO: +2 MRK: -197 MSFT: -9 NEE: +1 NVDA: +30 OKE: -13 ORCL: 0 PAA: 0 PEP: -1353 (EXIT) PFE: 0 PG: 0 PM: 0 PSQA: -6135 PSQO: +12020 QQQ: 0 QUAL: 0 SLB: +20 SLYV: -2370 (EXIT) SPY: -144 T: -1094 TSLA: +2 VZ: -4315 (EXIT) WELL: +8 WMT: +16

Cumulative Δshares (2026Q1 + 2026Q2): GSST: 1,114,284 - 448,614 = +665,670 (massive) PSQO: 489,440 + 12,020 = +501,460 PSQA: 245,109 - 6,135 = +238,974 AVLV: 11,260 + 15,260 = +26,520 AVXC: 32,813 + 35,734 = +68,547 FBCG: 13,514 + 15,204 = +28,718 JIRE: 8,385 + 11,629 = +20,014 IVV: 722 + 975 = +1,697 IWY: 3,078 + 2,670 = +5,748 ISMD: 1,806 + 2,361 = +4,167 IWF: -458 + 3,894 = +3,436 NVDA: 1,288 + 30 = +1,318 EVSM: 12,124 (NEW in Q2) FENI: 15,068 (NEW in Q2) GMUB: 9,616 (NEW in Q2) GOOGL: 630 (NEW in Q2) INTC: 1,889 (NEW in Q2) CSCO: 2,219 (NEW in Q2) WMT: 1,890 + 16 = +1,906 AAPL: 812 - 51 = +761 AMZN: 652 - 2 = +650 JNJ: 156 + 0 = +156 KO: 265 + 0 = +265 MRK: 152 - 197 = -45 LLY: -192 - 459 = -651 MSFT: -211 - 9 = -220 MDY: -442 - 533 = -975 CAT: 26 - 1 = +25 DE: 13 + 0 = +13 BRKB: 90 + 3 = +93 CAH: 23 + 1 = +24 FI: 277 - 7 = +270 EPD: 69 + 0 = +69 EVRG: 21 + 3 = +24 GE: 55 + 1 = +56 HD: 56 - 2 = +54 IBM: 55 - 2 = +53 MMM: 42 + 0 = +42 MO: 44 + 2 = +46 NEE: 156 + 1 = +157 ORCL: 90 + 0 = +90 PAA: 0 + 0 = 0 PFE: 82 + 0 = +82 PG: -52 + 0 = -52 PM: 0 + 0 = 0 QQQ: 0 + 0 = 0 QUAL: 0 + 0 = 0 SLB: -72 + 20 = -52 T: 12 - 1,094 = -1,082 TSLA: 151 + 2 = +153 WELL: -65 + 8 = -57 BA: 39 + 0 = +39 CMI: 8 + 0 = +8 IWM: 0 - 79 = -79 GLTR: 0 + 0 = 0 IUSG: 0 + 0 = 0 DVY: 1,400 + 0 = +1,400 OKE: 2,468 - 13 = +2,455 PEP: 1,353 - 1,353 = 0 (roundtrip) CVX: 1,165 - 1,165 = 0 (roundtrip) ED: 1,779 - 1,779 = 0 (roundtrip) VZ: 4,315 - 4,315 = 0 (roundtrip) SLYV: -138 - 2,370 = -2,508 SCHM: -8,318 (EXIT Q1) SPDW: -8,098 (EXIT Q1) SPYG: -2,817 (EXIT Q1) SPYV: -4,123 (EXIT Q1)

Exited completely in Q1: SCHM, SPDW, SPYG, SPYV Exited completely in Q2: CVX, ED, PEP, SLYV, VZ

New in Q1: AVXC, CVX, DVY, ED, GSST, OKE, PEP, PSQA, VZ, WMT New in Q2: CSCO, EVSM, FENI, GMUB, GOOGL, INTC

Now, for conviction rank by cumulative Δshares, the top are: 1. GSST: +665,670 2. PSQO: +501,460 3. PSQA: +238,974 4. AVXC: +68,547 5. FBCG: +28,718 6. AVLV: +26,520 7. JIRE: +20,014 8. EVSM: +12,124 (Q2 only) 9. FENI: +15,068 (Q2 only) 10. GMUB: +9,616 (Q2 only) 11. IWY: +5,748 12. ISMD: +4,167 13. IWF: +3,436 14. OKE: +2,455 15. CSCO: +2,219 16. WMT: +1,906 17. INTC: +1,889 18. IVV: +1,697 19. DVY: +1,400 20. NVDA: +1,318

But we need to cross-tab vs weight and vs adding into strength/weakness.

Weight at 2026Q2: GSST: 19.15% PSQO: 6.13% PSQA: 2.78% AVXC: 3.34% FBCG: 5.77% AVLV: 11.70% JIRE: 6.18% EVSM: 0.35% FENI: 0.34% GMUB: 0.28% IWY: 5.03% ISMD: 0.47% IWF: 0.37% OKE: 0.12% CSCO: 0.15% WMT: 0.12% INTC: 0.15% IVV: 14.83% DVY: 0.12% NVDA: 0.28%

So high conviction (large Δshares) aligns with high weight for GSST, PSQO, AVLV, FBCG, JIRE, IVV, IWY. But PSQA has high Δshares but only 2.78% weight. AVXC has high Δshares and 3.34% weight. EVSM, FENI, GMUB are new in Q2 with small weights but large Δshares (because they're new).

Adding into strength/weakness: Need price performance. We don't have prices. But we can infer from weight changes vs share changes.

If weight increases while shares increase, could be both flow and price appreciation. If weight decreases while shares increase, then price must have fallen (adding into weakness). If weight increases while shares decrease, price rose more (trimming into strength).

We have weight_pct and prev_weight_pct and delta_shares. But without prices and total portfolio value, we can't perfectly decompose. However, we can approximate.

Let me denote: w_t = weight at quarter t w_{t-1} = weight at quarter t-1 Δs = delta_shares P_t = price at quarter t P_{t-1} = price at quarter t-1 V_t = total portfolio value at quarter t V_{t-1} = total portfolio value at quarter t-1

Value of position at t: V_t * w_t = s_t * P_t Value at t-1: V_{t-1} * w_{t-1} = s_{t-1} * P_{t-1} s_t = s_{t-1} + Δs

Flow = Δs * P_t (using quarter-end price as proxy) Price effect = s_{t-1} * (P_t - P_{t-1}) Total change = Flow + Price effect = V_t w_t - V_{t-1} w_{t-1}

But we don't know V_t, V_{t-1}, P_t, P_{t-1}, s_{t-1}.

However, we can compute weight change and see if share change is in same direction.

For example, GSST in 2026Q1: NEW, weight 32.1%, Δshares +1,114,284. Obviously new position.

GSST in 2026Q2: weight from 32.1% to 19.15%, Δshares -448,614. Weight dropped significantly, shares trimmed. So trimming into ? If price of GSST is stable (ultra-short Treasury ETF, price ~$50, very stable), then weight drop is mostly due to portfolio growth elsewhere or redemption. Actually GSST price is very stable around $50. So Δshares negative means selling shares. Weight dropped from 32% to 19% - portfolio likely grew significantly (other assets appreciated) or they sold a lot.

Similarly, PSQO: 2026Q1 weight 0.405% -> 5.95%, Δshares +489,440. 2026Q2 weight 5.95% -> 6.13%, Δshares +12,020. Steady accumulation.

PSQA: 2026Q1 NEW 2.86%, Δshares +245,109. 2026Q2 weight 2.86% -> 2.78%, Δshares -6,135. Slight trim.

AVLV: 2025Q4 15.04% -> 2026Q1 9.66%, Δshares +11,260. Weight dropped but shares increased! So price must have fallen relative to portfolio, or portfolio grew. Actually AVLV is an ETF, if market dropped, price drops. But they added shares while weight dropped - adding into weakness.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: AVLV weight 9.66% -> 11.70%, Δshares +15,260. Weight up, shares up - adding into strength.

IVV: 2025Q4 22.62% -> 2026Q1 12.60%, Δshares +722. Weight halved, shares slightly up. Major rotation out of IVV into GSST.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: IVV 12.60% -> 14.83%, Δshares +975. Adding, weight up.

FBCG: 2025Q4 7.36% -> 2026Q1 4.23%, Δshares +13,514. Weight down, shares up significantly. Adding into weakness.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 4.23% -> 5.77%, Δshares +15,204. Adding, weight up.

JIRE: 2025Q4 8.35% -> 2026Q1 5.19%, Δshares +8,385. Weight down, shares up. Adding into weakness.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 5.19% -> 6.18%, Δshares +11,629. Adding, weight up.

IWY: 2025Q4 6.81% -> 2026Q1 3.93%, Δshares +3,078. Weight down, shares up. Adding into weakness.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 3.93% -> 5.03%, Δshares +2,670. Adding, weight up.

SPY: 2025Q4 8.78% -> 2026Q1 4.41%, Δshares -1,012. Weight down, shares down. Selling into weakness? Or rebalancing.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 4.41% -> 4.99%, Δshares -144. Weight up slightly, shares down slightly. Price appreciation.

MSFT: 2025Q4 4.31% -> 2026Q1 1.84%, Δshares -211. Weight down, shares down.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 1.84% -> 1.85%, Δshares -9. Weight flat, slight trim.

LLY: 2025Q4 3.59% -> 2026Q1 1.65%, Δshares -192. Weight down, shares down.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 1.65% -> 1.84%, Δshares -459. Weight up, shares down. Price appreciation.

NVDA: 2025Q4 0.21% -> 2026Q1 0.24%, Δshares +1,288. Weight up slightly, shares up a lot. Adding aggressively.

2026Q1 to 2026Q2: 0.24% -> 0.28%, Δshares +30. Continuing.

Now, sub-sector buckets. Need to derive from tickers.

ETF categories: - Broad US Equity: IVV, SPY, VOO (not here), QQQ - Large Cap Growth: IWF, IWY, SPYG, FBCG, QQQ - Large Cap Value: AVLV, SPYV, DVY - Mid Cap: MDY, SCHM, IWR (not here) - Small Cap: IWM, SLYV, ISMD, AVXC - International: SPDW, IEFA (not here) - Factor/Quality: QUAL, USMV (not here) - Sector/Thematic: - Fixed Income/Short Term: GSST (ultra-short Treasury), GMUB (muni bond) - Structured Outcome: PSQA, PSQO, FENI? (FENI might be FT Cboe Vest Fund of Deep Buffer ETFs? Actually FENI is FT Cboe Vest U.S. Equity Deep Buffer ETF - November) - Commodities: GLTR (precious metals), GLD (not here) - MLPs/Energy Infrastructure: EPD, OKE, PAA - Utilities: EVRG, ED, NEE - REITs: O, WELL, VNQ (not here) - Individual Stocks by sector: - Tech: AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, INTC, CSCO, ORCL, IBM - Comm Services: GOOGL, META (not here), T, VZ - Healthcare: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABT (not here), LLY, CAH - Financials: JPM, BRKB, GS (not here), BAC (not here), WFC (not here), FI - Consumer Staples: PG, KO, PEP, PM, MO, WMT, COST (not here) - Industrials: CAT, DE, BA, GE, MMM, HON (not here) - Energy: CVX, XOM (not here), SLB, EPD, OKE, PAA - Materials: NEM (not here), FCX (not here) - Consumer Disc: HD, AMZN, TSLA, MCD (not here) - Real Estate: O, WELL, PLD (not here)

But the portfolio is heavily ETF-based. The individual stocks are small positions mostly <0.5% each.

Major ETF positions: - GSST: Ultra-short Treasury (cash equivalent) - IVV: S&P 500 core - AVLV: US Large Cap Value - JIRE: JPMorgan Income ETF (fixed income? Actually JIRE is JPMorgan Income ETF - multi-sector income) - PSQO: Pacer Swan SOS Conservative July (structured outcome) - FBCG: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth - SPY: S&P 500 - IWY: Russell Top 200 Growth - AVXC: Avantis US Small Cap Value - PSQA: Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds - IWF: Russell 1000 Growth - IWM: Russell 2000 - ISMD: Inspire Small/Mid Cap Impact - MDY: S&P MidCap 400 - DVY: Select Dividend - GLTR: Precious Metals - GMUB: Muni Bond - EVSM: ? ESG small mid? Actually EVSM is Eaton Vance Short Duration Municipal Opportunities? No. Let me check: EVSM is Eaton Vance Short Duration Municipal Income ETF? Actually EVSM is "Eaton Vance Short Duration Municipal Income ETF" - muni bond. - FENI: FT Cboe Vest U.S. Equity Deep Buffer ETF - November (structured outcome) - GOOGL, INTC, CSCO: individual tech

Wait, JIRE: JPMorgan Income ETF - this is a fixed income ETF (multi-sector bond). Weight 8.3% -> 5.2% -> 6.2%. So significant fixed income allocation.

GSST: 32% -> 19% - ultra-short Treasury.

So the portfolio has a massive cash/short-term fixed income component (GSST ~19-32%, JIRE ~5-8%, PSQO/PSQA/FENI structured outcome ~9-10%, GMUB muni ~0.3%, EVSM muni ~0.3%, DVY dividend ~0.12%, GLTR precious metals ~0.16%).

Equity ETFs: IVV ~15%, AVLV ~12%, FBCG ~6%, SPY ~5%, IWY ~5%, AVXC ~3%, IWF ~0.4%, IWM ~0.5%, ISMD ~0.5%, MDY ~1.7%, QUAL ~0.17%.

Individual stocks: total maybe 5-10% combined.

This looks like a "core-satellite" or "ETF-based asset allocation" with a huge cash/short-term bond overlay (GSST). The GSST position is unusual for a typical equity hedge fund - 32% then 19% in ultra-short Treasuries suggests either: 1. Defensive positioning / market timing 2. Cash management for a larger mandate (maybe they manage multiple sleeves) 3. Collateral for derivatives (but 13F doesn't show derivatives) 4. Transition period

Given the mandate is not stated, we infer from flows.

Now, turnover proxy: Σ|Δshares|×quarter-end price ÷ avg value. We don't have prices or portfolio values. But we can compute a share-turnover proxy: Σ|Δshares| / total shares? Not exactly.

We can compute weight turnover: Σ|w_t - w_{t-1}| / 2? But that's not the formula.

The formula given: turnover proxy = Σ|Δshares|×quarter-end price ÷ avg value (lower bound)

Since we lack prices and values, we cannot compute this. Must flag as data limitation.

But we can compute a "share turnover" metric: Σ|Δshares| / Σ shares_held? But we don't have shares_held, only delta_shares.

We have delta_shares for each quarter. For 2026Q1, we have Δshares from 2025Q4. For 2026Q2, Δshares from 2026Q1.

We could estimate shares held at 2025Q4 if we had prices. But we don't.

However, we can compute the sum of absolute delta_shares each quarter as a proxy for trading activity.

2026Q1 Σ|Δshares| = sum of absolute values from above. Major contributors: GSST: 1,114,284 PSQA: 245,109 PSQO: 489,440 AVLV: 11,260 FBCG: 13,514 JIRE: 8,385 AVXC: 32,813 IWY: 3,078 ISMD: 1,806 IVV: 722 IWF: 458 SPY: 1,012 SLYV: 138 SCHM: 8,318 SPDW: 8,098 SPYG: 2,817 SPYV: 4,123 VZ: 4,315 WMT: 1,890 OKE: 2,468 CVX: 1,165 DVY: 1,400 ED: 1,779 PEP: 1,353 NVDA: 1,288 LLY: 192 MDY: 442 MSFT: 211 CAT: 26 AAPL: 812 AMZN: 652 etc.

Rough sum ~ 1.1M + 0.25M + 0.49M + 0.03M + 0.01M + 0.008M + 0.03M + ... ≈ 2 million shares traded in Q1.

2026Q2 Σ|Δshares|: GSST: 448,614 AVLV: 15,260 AVXC: 35,734 FBCG: 15,204 JIRE: 11,629 IWF: 3,894 IVV: 975 IWY: 2,670 ISMD: 2,361 EVSM: 12,124 FENI: 15,068 GMUB: 9,616 GOOGL: 630 INTC: 1,889 CSCO: 2,219 PSQO: 12,020 PSQA: 6,135 SLYV: 2,370 VZ: 4,315 PEP: 1,353 CVX: 1,165 ED: 1,779 T: 1,094 LLY: 459 MDY: 533 MRK: 197 AAPL: 51 etc.

Sum ~ 0.45M + 0.015M + 0.036M + 0.015M + 0.012M + 0.004M + 0.001M + 0.003M + 0.002M + 0.012M + 0.015M + 0.01M + 0.001M + 0.002M + 0.002M + 0.012M + 0.006M + 0.002M + 0.004M + 0.001M + 0.002M + 0.001M + 0.0005M + 0.0005M ≈ 0.6 million shares.

So turnover decreased Q1 to Q2.

But without prices/values, can't compute the proxy. Will note.

HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) = sum of weight^2.

2025Q4: Major weights: IVV 22.6%, AVLV 15.0%, SPY 8.8%, JIRE 8.3%, FBCG 7.4%, IWY 6.8%, MSFT 4.3%, LLY 3.6%, MDY 3.1%, others small. HHI ≈ 22.6^2 + 15.0^2 + 8.8^2 + 8.3^2 + 7.4^2 + 6.8^2 + 4.3^2 + 3.6^2 + 3.1^2 + ... = 511 + 225 + 77 + 69 + 55 + 46 + 18 + 13 + 10 = ~1024 (in basis points? Actually weight in %, so HHI = sum(w_i^2) where w_i in decimal. If w_i in %, HHI = sum(w_i^2)/10000. Better: w_i as fraction: 0.226^2 + 0.150^2 + 0.088^2 + 0.083^2 + 0.074^2 + 0.068^2 + 0.043^2 + 0.036^2 + 0.031^2 + ... = 0.0511 + 0.0225 + 0.0077 + 0.0069 + 0.0055 + 0.0046 + 0.0018 + 0.0013 + 0.0010 = 0.1024. So HHI ~ 1024 (on 0-10000 scale) or 0.1024.

2026Q1: GSST 32.1%, IVV 12.6%, AVLV 9.7%, JIRE 5.2%, PSQO 6.0%, FBCG 4.2%, SPY 4.4%, IWY 3.9%, MSFT 1.8%, MDY 1.7%, LLY 1.7%, AVXC 1.3%, etc. HHI = 0.321^2 + 0.126^2 + 0.097^2 + 0.052^2 + 0.060^2 + 0.042^2 + 0.044^2 + 0.039^2 + 0.018^2 + 0.017^2 + 0.017^2 + 0.013^2 + ... = 0.1030 + 0.0159 + 0.0094 + 0.0027 + 0.0036 + 0.0018 + 0.0019 + 0.0015 + 0.0003 + 0.0003 + 0.0003 + 0.0002 = ~0.141. Higher concentration due to GSST.

2026Q2: GSST 19.1%, IVV 14.8%, AVLV 11.7%, JIRE 6.2%, PSQO 6.1%, FBCG 5.8%, SPY 5.0%, IWY 5.0%, AVXC 3.3%, MSFT 1.9%, LLY 1.8%, CAT 2.0%, MDY 1.7%, etc. HHI = 0.191^2 + 0.148^2 + 0.117^2 + 0.062^2 + 0.061^2 + 0.058^2 + 0.050^2 + 0.050^2 + 0.033^2 + 0.019^2 + 0.018^2 + 0.020^2 + 0.017^2 + ... = 0.0365 + 0.0219 + 0.0137 + 0.0038 + 0.0037 + 0.0034 + 0.0025 + 0.0025 + 0.0011 + 0.0004 + 0.0003 + 0.0004 + 0.0003 = ~0.090. Lower than Q1 but higher than Q4.

Top-5 weights: 2025Q4: IVV 22.6%, AVLV 15.0%, SPY 8.8%, JIRE 8.3%, FBCG 7.4% = 62.1% 2026Q1: GSST 32.1%, IVV 12.6%, AVLV 9.7%, PSQO 6.0%, JIRE 5.2% = 65.6% 2026Q2: GSST 19.1%, IVV 14.8%, AVLV 11.7%, JIRE 6.2%, PSQO 6.1% = 57.9%

Top-10 weights: 2025Q4: add IWY 6.8%, MSFT 4.3%, LLY 3.6%, MDY 3.1% = 62.1+17.8=79.9% 2026Q1: add FBCG 4.2%, SPY 4.4%, IWY 3.9%, MSFT 1.8% = 65.6+14.3=79.9% 2026Q2: add FBCG 5.8%, SPY 5.0%, IWY 5.0%, AVXC 3.3% = 57.9+19.1=77.0%

Now, for the answer structure:

Bottom line (5 bullets) Tables Top-10 plus material new/exits One paragraph per sub-sector Contradictions and open questions Data limitations

Epistemics: Verified (computed), Inferred, Speculative.

Let me draft.

First, strategy implied by flows: - Massive rotation into ultra-short Treasuries (GSST) in Q1 (32% weight), then partial unwind in Q2 (19%). Suggests tactical cash raise / defensive positioning in Q1, then redeployment in Q2. - Simultaneous accumulation of structured outcome ETFs (PSQO, PSQA, FENI) - downside protection with capped upside. - Rotation within equity: out of broad beta (IVV, SPY, IWY, FBCG) in Q1, then back into value (AVLV), growth (IWY, IVV), and small cap value (AVXC) in Q2. - Fixed income income ETF (JIRE) trimmed in Q1 then added in Q2. - New muni bond ETFs in Q2 (GMUB, EVSM). - Individual stock picking minimal, mostly <0.5% each, with some roundtrips (CVX, ED, PEP, VZ in and out in one quarter).

Concentration: High but shifting. HHI rose then fell. Top-5 58-66%.

Turnover: High in Q1 (major restructuring), lower in Q2.

Sizing dispersion: GSST dominates Q1. Many tiny positions (<0.2%).

Core vs tactical: Core: IVV, AVLV, JIRE, PSQO (persistent, large) Tactical: GSST (huge but temporary), FBCG (trimmed then added), IWY (trimmed then added), AVXC (new then added), SPY (trimmed), MSFT/LLY (trimmed), roundtrip names.

Sub-sector rotations: 1. Cash/Ultra-short Treasuries (GSST): Macro assumption: Expect near-term volatility/liquidity need, or rising rates making short-term attractive. Unwind in Q2 suggests view changed. 2. Structured Outcome / Buffered Equity (PSQO, PSQA, FENI): Macro assumption: Want equity exposure with downside protection; expect range-bound or volatile market. 3. US Large Cap Value (AVLV) vs Growth (FBCG, IWY, IWF): Q1 rotated out of both but more out of growth; Q2 rotated back into both but value (AVLV) larger. 4. US Small Cap Value (AVXC, ISMD, SLYV): New