ALONGSIDE, LLC — 13F Portfolio Forensics: 2026Q2 Baseline Analysis

Filing Period: 2026Q2 (left-censored — all positions mechanically "NEW")
Reportable Sleeve: Long US-listed equity only (13F), ~45-day lag
Sample Size: 1 quarter only — insufficient for flow-based strategy inference; all conclusions below are structural/snapshot only, labeled accordingly.

Bottom Line (5 Bullets)

• Verified (High Confidence): The reportable sleeve is ~85% ETF/CEF/ETN wrappers by weight (121 of 152 positions), not a stock-picking portfolio. Top 10 positions = 38.2% of sleeve; HHI = 298 (moderately concentrated in mega-cap/broad-market ETFs).
• Verified (High Confidence): Fixed income + cash proxies dominate (≈34% combined): ultra-short Treasury (BIL, SGOV-equivalent CUSIPs), IG/HY corporate (IGIB, IBND-equivalents, JAAA, PULS, FENI, FBND), muni (MUB, NEA), TIPS (TIP), EM debt (EMB, PHYL). This is a core-satellite allocation framework, not equity alpha.
• Inferred (Medium Confidence): Equity beta is gained overwhelmingly via broad/index ETFs (IVV, IWF, IWM, IXUS, IEFA, IEMG, VT, VOO, VUG, VO, IWR, IJH) + factor tilts (IVE value, IVW growth, IWD/IWF style, IWO/IWN size, VYM/NOBL/DIVZ yield). Single-name equity = ~15% of sleeve, heavily mega-cap (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, CSCO, BRKB, CAT, LLY).
• Speculative (Low Confidence): Precious metals / commodity proxy sleeve (GLD 1.6%, PHYS 1.1%, SLV 0.06%, PSLV 0.4%, GDX 0.07%, PDBC 0.8%, AEM/PAAS/NEM gold miners) suggests explicit inflation/USD hedge or barbell — but weight is small relative to FI.
• Critical Data Gap: No prior quarters → zero flow data (Δshares, turnover, conviction rank, scaling, add/trim into strength/weakness). All "strategy" claims below are holdings-based structure only; next filing (2026Q3) is first actionable forensics point.

1. Portfolio Architecture — Verified Composition Tables

1.1 Position Count & Gross Value (Baseline)

Formula: weight_pct sums to 100% per 13F convention (reportable sleeve = long US-listed equity + ETFs/CEFs/ETNs). Unidentified CUSIPs: CUSIP:316092824 (1.74%, 133,211 shrs → likely SGOV or similar ultra-short Treasury ETF), CUSIP:37960A438 (0.76%, 39,917 shrs), CUSIP:084670108 (0.14%, 1 shr → data artifact), CUSIP:30231G102 (0.35%, 13,282 shrs).

1.2 Top-10 / Top-5 Weights & HHI

Interpretation: Moderate concentration driven by broad-market ETF overlap (IVV + IXUS + IEFA + IEMG + VT ≈ 23% redundant beta). True active bets = factor tilts (IWF, IWM, IJH, IWR, DIVZ, SPYM, IVE, VUG, VO, etc.) + single names + FI/commodity sleeves.

1.3 Sub-Sector Bucket Weights (Derived from Tickers)

Bridge Logic: Opening (N/A) → Flow (N/A) → Price (N/A) → Closing = 2026Q2 weights. No flow decomposition possible.

1.4 Top-20 Single-Name Equity Positions (by weight)

Note: AVEM, DFCF, DFTX, GTBP, NMAX, XTIA — several tickers appear to be micro-cap / illiquid / possible CEFs or non-standard listings; weights small but share counts large → price near $0.01–$0.10. Flag for verification. DFCF 0.81% at 100k shares = ~$8/share (plausible CEF). GTBP 0.006% at 64,000 shares = ~$0.009/share (penny stock / warrant?). XTIA same share count as GTBP (64,000) → possible data duplication / same issuer.

2. Strategy Implied by Structure (Holdings-Only, No Flows)

3. Core vs. Tactical Positions — Structure Map

Contradiction Check: No stated mandate to contradict. Flows unavailable → cannot test "stated conviction vs. action."

4. Sub-Sector Rotations — Macro Assumptions Required (If These Were Flow Changes)

Since no flows exist, this section maps current structure → required macro view for this allocation to be optimal.

5. Cap / Liquidity / Leverage / Geography Tilts & Drift

6. Divergence from Mandate & Peer Context

• Mandate: Not stated — cannot assess divergence.
• Peer 13Fs: Not provided — cannot benchmark.
• Active Share vs SPY: Estimated >85% (only 7.8% in IVV + 0.09% in SPY = 7.9% direct S&P 500 overlap; rest is factor/FI/commodity/ex-US). But this is asset allocation active share, not stock-picking active share.

7. Falsifiable Predictions (for 2026Q3 Filing)

8. Contradictions & Open Questions

9. Data Limitations (Critical)

10. Top-10 Positions + Material New/Exits (Baseline Only)

Top-10 by Weight (All "NEW" — Baseline)

Material "New" (Baseline) — High Weight / Structural

Exits — None (baseline quarter)

11. Sub-Sector Paragraphs (Structure → Macro Logic)

US Equity Core & Factor (25.6% combined)

The US equity sleeve is entirely ETF-implemented with a barbell of cap-weighted core (IVV, VOO, VTI, SPY) and factor tilts. Growth (IWF, IVW, VUG, MGK = 6.2%) and Value/Yield (IVE, IWD, VYM, DIVZ, DGRO, NOBL = 4.5%) coexist — suggesting no strong style conviction, but rather a multi-factor strategic allocation. Small/Mid (IWM, IJH, IWR, IWO, IWN, IJR, VB = 8.0%) is overweight vs SPY (which has ~7% SMID), implying a domestic cyclical/size premium harvest view. Equal-weight (SPYM, 2.6%) adds anti-momentum/mean-reversion exposure. Macro required: US equity risk premium positive; factor premiums (size, value, quality) persist; no severe recession (which kills small caps first).

Developed Ex-US & EM Equity (12.2% combined)

IXUS (4.8%) + IEFA (3.7%) + VEA (1.7%) = 10.2% DM Ex-US — slightly above MSCI ACWI ex-US weight (~85% of non-US), but concentrated in core indexes, not active country/sector bets. EM (IEMG 5.1% + VWO 0.2% = 5.3%) is modestly overweight vs ACWI (~11% EM) but implemented via broad indexes. No single-country, no active EM managers. Macro required: DM valuation discount vs US narrows (Europe/Japan earnings recovery, currency rebound); EM benefits from Fed easing cycle, China policy support, commodity tailwinds.

Fixed Income: The Largest Sleeve (33.6%)

Ultra-short / Cash (6.5%): BIL, SGOV, ICSH, VNLA, OBIL — Fed funds >4.5%, capital preservation, optionality.
Intermediate IG (5.8%): IGIB, VCIT, VCSH, IAGG — duration ~5-7yr, spread carry, soft landing.
HY / Bank Loan / CLO (6.1%): JAAA (CLO AAA), FENI, PULS, SPHY, USHY, SHYG, PCHI, HTRB, FFC, CSHI, CSQ — leveraged CEFs/ETNs dominate (FENI, PCHI, HTRB, FFC, CSHI, CSQ, PFOE, PFDE). Embedded leverage + high yield = credit barbell: safe ultra-short + risky leveraged credit. Macro required: benign default cycle, steepening curve helps CLO/loan floaters, HY spreads tighten further.
EM Debt (0.8%): EMB, PHYL — tactical.
Muni (1.5%): MUB, NEA — taxable-equivalent yield focus.
TIPS (0.87%): TIP — inflation volatility hedge.

Precious Metals & Commodity (3.2%)

GLD (1.6%), PHYS (1.1%), PSLV (0.4%), SLV (0.06%), GDX (0.07%), PDBC (0.8%), miners (AEM, PAAS, NEM, DMLP, EROK = 0.3%). Physical gold/silver + broad commodity (PDBC) + miner leverage. Weight is too small for tail hedge, too large for rounding → explicit strategic inflation/USD debasement allocation. Macro required: negative real rates, fiscal dominance, central bank gold buying, energy transition metal demand.

Single-Name Equity (14.8%, 38 names)

Mega-cap dominated: Top 10 single names = 5.3% of sleeve (AAPL 1.1%, MSFT 0.7%, ABBV 0.5%, AMZN 0.5%, NVDA 0.4%, CSCO 0.4%, BRKB 0.3%, CAT 0.3%, LLY 0.4%, META 0.3%). Sector mix: Tech/CommSvcs ~35%, Health ~15%, Financials ~10%, Energy ~5%, Industrials ~5%, ConsDisc/Staples ~10%. No small/mid single names (all >$50B cap). Macro required: mega-cap quality compounders outperform; AI/Cloud/Pharma secular trends intact; no antitrust breakup risk.

12. Final Epistemic Status Summary

Next Filing (2026Q3) Will Enable: Δshares computation, turnover proxy, conviction ranking, scaling detection, add/trim into strength/weakness, active share drift, peer comparison — first true forensics window.

End of 2026Q2 Baseline Forensics. All flow-dependent analyses disabled pending 2026Q3 filing.