CMS — Ticker Eval done
1. Composite Trajectory Verdict
For a regulated utility with a capital-intensive investment program, all three statements carry roughly equal weight: the income statement reflects allowed returns on rate base, the cash flow statement captures the substantial capital expenditure cycle and regulatory working capital dynamics, and the balance sheet tracks leverage against regulatory covenants and the ability to fund the $24.1 billion five‑year Consumers plan.
Composite Trajectory: Mixed
Earnings are improving, with net income available to common rising from $993 million to $1,061 million and diluted EPS from $3.33 to $3.53 (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, MD&A). Cash generation is mixed: operating cash flow declined from $2,370 million to $2,235 million despite higher net income, while investing outflows deepened to $4,038 million from $3,054 million and financing inflows surged to $2,240 million from $614 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Cash Position). The balance sheet shows asset and equity growth but leverage rising faster than equity: long‑term debt increased 17 % to $17.8 billion while common equity rose 11 % to $8.9 billion, though both CMS Energy (0.56 vs. 0.70 limit) and Consumers (0.51 vs. 0.65 limit) remain within debt‑to‑capital covenants (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet; Capital Resources).
2. Red Flags
- Operating cash flow fell $135 million (5.7 %) year‑over‑year even as net income rose $68 million, driven by a $107 million unfavorable core working capital shift (gas prices, PSCR undercollections) and a $216 million unfavorable change in other assets/liabilities (lower tax‑credit proceeds, higher service restoration and renewable expenditures) (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Cash Position).
- Corporate interest and other loss widened from $(79 million) to $(138 million), primarily from $61 million higher interest charges and $38 million lower gains on debt extinguishment (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Results of Operations).
- Capital expenditures accelerated: Consumers investing cash outflow grew from $2,872 million to $3,535 million; CMS Energy consolidated from $3,054 million to $4,038 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Investing Activities).
- J.H. Campbell emergency orders require continued operation through at least February 2026, with retention costs up to $4 million per 90‑day period and FERC cost‑recovery proceedings pending (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Outlook).
- Two large rate cases pending: electric $447 million (order due April 2026) and gas $240 million (order due October 2026); outcomes directly affect 2026‑2027 revenue requirements (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Electric/Gas Rate Matters).
- Sale of 13 hydroelectric dams contingent on MPSC/FERC approval (12‑18+ months), with net book value immaterial but retention incentives and deferred accounting in place (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Outlook).
3. Earnings Assessment (Income Statement)
Earnings Trajectory: Improving
Overall Assessment: Consolidated net income available to common stockholders increased 6.8 % to $1,061 million in 2025 from $993 million in 2024, and diluted EPS rose 6.0 % to $3.53 from $3.33 (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, MD&A). Operating revenue grew 13.6 % to $8.539 billion from $7.515 billion, driven by electric utility revenue ($5.638 billion vs. $5.061 billion) and gas utility revenue ($2.493 billion vs. $2.138 billion) (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Statements of Operations). Electric utility segment net income rose 5.6 % to $719 million; gas utility segment net income rose 24.7 % to $409 million; NorthStar Clean Energy rose 12.7 % to $71 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Results of Operations). The corporate segment loss widened to $(138 million) from $(79 million) on higher interest expense and lower debt‑extinguishment gains (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Results of Operations). Pre‑tax income rose 11.1 % to $1,248 million from $1,123 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Statements of Operations).
4. Cash Generation Assessment (Statement of Cash Flows)
Cash Trajectory: Mixed
Overall Assessment: Net cash provided by operating activities decreased to $2,235 million in 2025 from $2,370 million in 2024, despite a $55 million increase in net income, because non‑cash adjustments added only $133 million and working capital/other asset‑liability changes drained $323 million combined (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Cash Position). Net cash used in investing activities rose sharply to $4,038 million from $3,054 million, reflecting $806 million higher capital expenditures and the absence of $124 million ASP sale proceeds received in 2024 (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Investing Activities). Net cash provided by financing activities surged to $2,240 million from $614 million, driven by $1,647 million higher debt issuances, $239 million higher common stock issuances (forward‑sale settlements), and $59 million VIE membership‑interest proceeds, partly offset by $198 million higher debt retirements and $37 million higher dividend payments (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Financing Activities). Consolidated cash and equivalents rose to $509 million from $103 million, with restricted cash at $106 million vs. $75 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet).
5. Balance Sheet Assessment
Balance Sheet Trajectory: Mixed
Overall Assessment: Total assets grew 11.2 % to $39.9 billion from $35.9 billion, primarily from a $3.2 billion increase in net plant, property & equipment (to $30.7 billion) and a $1.0 billion rise in construction work in progress (to $3.1 billion) (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet). Long‑term debt increased 17.2 % to $17.8 billion from $15.2 billion; the current portion of long‑term debt fell to $956 million from $1,195 million (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet). Total common stockholders’ equity rose 11.4 % to $8.9 billion from $8.0 billion, with retained earnings increasing to $2.4 billion from $2.0 billion (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet). Regulatory assets (non‑current) declined to $3.36 billion from $3.57 billion, while regulatory liabilities (non‑current) were essentially flat at $4.09 billion (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Balance Sheet). Debt‑to‑capital covenants remain comfortably met: CMS Energy parent 0.56 vs. 0.70 limit; Consumers 0.51 vs. 0.65 limit; NorthStar Clean Energy 0.14 vs. 0.50 limit (10‑K 2025‑12‑31, Capital Resources).
6. Data Gaps
- Quarterly income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet trends for 2025‑2026 (10‑Q data truncated in provided filings; need full 10‑Qs for Q1‑Q3 2025 and Q1‑Q2 2026 to assess intra‑year trajectory).
- Full-year 2023 segment net income breakdown (only 2024‑2025 provided in MD&A tables).
- Detailed 2023 cash flow statement components (only 2024‑2025 changes shown).
- Debt maturity profile beyond 2026 (only 2026 contractual commitments shown: $1.0 billion CMS, $0.6 billion Consumers in long‑term debt principal).
- Pension/OPEB plan funded status and discount‑rate sensitivity beyond the 2026‑2028 credit/contribution estimates.
- Outcome of pending 2025 electric ($447 million) and gas ($240 million) rate cases (orders due April/October 2026).
- FERC cost‑recovery determination for J.H. Campbell emergency‑order compliance costs.
- MPSC/FERC approval timeline and financial impact of hydroelectric dam sale.