Tickers

1. Composite Trajectory Verdict

For an exchange operator like MIAX, the income statement matters most because its high-fixed-cost, volume-driven model means operating leverage determines profitability, though the balance sheet transformation post-IPO is also material.

Composite Trajectory: Mixed

Operating performance improved materially in 2025: revenue rose 19.6% to $1.36 B, revenues less cost of revenues jumped 56.2% to $430.5 M, and operating income swung from a $2.8 M loss to a $92.0 M gain (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). Cash from operations increased 50.6% to $167.8 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). The balance sheet strengthened dramatically after the August 2025 IPO: total equity rose 139.7% to $881.0 M, cash nearly tripled to $433.6 M, and all long-term debt ($140 M principal) plus puttable warrant and common stock liabilities ($142.6 M combined at 2024 year-end) were eliminated (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets). However, GAAP net income deteriorated from a $102.0 M profit to a $70.0 M loss due to a $107.7 M debt extinguishment loss and a $54.9 M unrealized loss on Pyth token derivatives (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). The Equities segment remains loss-making with negative capture, and the Futures segment’s operating loss widened. The GAAP/adjusted earnings gap widened to $235 M, and three customers still concentrate 45% of revenue.

2. Red Flags

• GAAP net income swung from +$102.0 M to -$70.0 M despite operating income improving from -$2.8 M to +$92.0 M, driven by a $107.7 M loss on debt extinguishment and a $54.9 M unrealized loss on derivative assets (Pyth tokens) (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations).
• Adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) of $164.8 M vs. GAAP net loss of $70.0 M — a $234.8 M gap — primarily from the debt extinguishment loss, Pyth token losses, and share-based compensation (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Overview reconciliation table).
• Puttable warrants ($64.2 M) and puttable common stock ($78.4 M) at 12/31/2024 were fair-value liabilities that created earnings volatility; both were reclassified to equity upon the August 2025 IPO (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets; MD&A 2029 Senior Secured Term Loan section).
• Section 31 fee rate dropped to $0.00 per million from $27.80 per million effective May 14, 2025, a temporary reduction that will revert; this fee is recorded as both revenue and cost of revenues with no operating income impact but affects top-line comparability (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Section 31 Fees).
• MIAXdx classified as held for sale ($41.0 M assets, $2.8 M liabilities) and sold in January 2026 for a ~$50 M gain not reflected in 2025 results (10-K FY 2025, MD&A MIAXdx Transaction).
• Valuation allowance on deferred tax assets increased to $109.2 M from $93.6 M (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Income Tax Provision).
• Customer concentration: three customers accounted for 45% of 2025 revenue (15% + 19% + 11%) (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Concentration of Revenue).
• Equities segment capture remained negative at -$0.012 per 100 shares (improved from -$0.040) with market share falling to 1.0% from 1.6% (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Key Business Metrics).
• Futures segment operating loss widened to $56.8 M from $47.2 M; adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $35.7 M from $31.5 M (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Segment Operating Results — Futures).

3. Earnings Assessment (Income Statement)

Earnings Trajectory: Mixed

Revenue grew 19.6% YoY to $1.364 B, driven by a 30.5% increase in Options transaction and clearing fees to $988.1 M (volume +24.8%, MIH contracts +41.1%, RPC +18.7%), partially offset by a 21.1% decline in Equities transaction fees to $129.1 M (market share -37.5%) and a 9.0% decline in Futures transaction fees to $72.0 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations; MD&A Revenues). Revenues less cost of revenues expanded 56.2% to $430.5 M as liquidity payments grew only 15.2% vs. 18.9% transaction fee growth (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Revenues Less Cost of Revenues). Operating income turned positive at $92.0 M from a $2.8 M loss (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). However, net income fell to a $70.0 M loss from a $102.0 M profit due to $107.7 M debt extinguishment loss, $54.9 M unrealized derivative loss, and $3.4 M combined fair-value changes on puttable instruments (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). Options segment operating income rose 75.3% to $234.1 M; Equities operating loss narrowed to $12.0 M from $27.1 M; Futures operating loss widened to $56.8 M from $47.2 M; International operating loss narrowed to $1.0 M from $10.8 M boosted by the June 2025 TISE acquisition (10-K FY 2025, MD&A Segment Operating Results).

4. Cash Generation Assessment (Statement of Cash Flows)

Cash Trajectory: Improving

Net cash provided by operating activities increased 50.6% to $167.8 M from $111.4 M, driven by higher cash earnings and a $268.0 M non-cash add-back (primarily $107.7 M debt extinguishment loss, $54.9 M unrealized derivative loss, $57.6 M share-based compensation, $29.4 M D&A) partially offset by $30.1 M working capital outflow (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Investing cash outflow rose to $101.3 M from $40.6 M, including $56.5 M for the TISE acquisition, $22.8 M capex, $12.1 M capitalized software, and $10.0 M investments (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Financing cash inflow surged to $214.8 M from $29.4 M, led by $365.6 M net IPO proceeds, $36.9 M incremental term loan, and $12.3 M equity issuances, offset by $140.0 M debt repayment, $36.1 M prepayment premium, and $21.8 M share repurchases (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Total cash, segregated cash, and restricted cash rose to $557.6 M from $276.4 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows reconciliation).

5. Balance Sheet Assessment

Balance Sheet Trajectory: Improving

Total assets grew 29.4% to $1.259 B from $973.7 M, led by cash and cash equivalents nearly tripling to $433.6 M from $150.3 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets). Total liabilities fell 37.6% to $378.4 M from $606.0 M as the $140 M 2029 Senior Secured Term Loan was repaid, the $64.2 M puttable warrant liability and $78.4 M puttable common stock liability were reclassified to equity upon the IPO, and accounts payable declined to $69.8 M from $120.4 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets; MD&A 2029 Senior Secured Term Loan). Total stockholders’ equity more than doubled to $881.0 M from $367.6 M, with additional paid-in capital rising to $1.522 B from $930.6 M (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets). Goodwill increased to $62.2 M from $46.8 M and intangible assets to $170.8 M from $114.2 M, primarily from the TISE acquisition (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets). MIAXdx assets ($41.0 M) and liabilities ($2.8 M) are classified as held for sale (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets). No long-term debt remains at 12/31/2025 (10-K FY 2025, Consolidated Balance Sheets).

6. Data Gaps

• Quarterly year-over-year comparisons: 10-Qs provided for Q3 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026, but same-quarter prior-year periods (Q3 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025) are not included, preventing quarterly YoY trend analysis.
• Q4 2025 standalone results: only full-year 2025 figures are available in the 10-K; the implied Q4 cannot be derived without nine-month 2025 data.
• Three-year annual trend: 2023 full-year results are referenced but not presented in the provided filings.
• Detailed quarterly segment revenue, cost, and operating income breakdowns for 2025 and 2026 quarters.
• Debt maturity schedule beyond the repaid 2029 term loan; revolving credit facilities at MIAX Futures and Dorman Trading are mentioned but not quantified.
• CAT implementation cost trajectory and promissory note collection status beyond the $1.5 M outstanding at 12/31/2025.
• Fair value methodology and unlock schedule for the remaining 250 M Pyth tokens (derivative asset $11.1 M at 12/31/2025).