Tickers

1. Composite Trajectory Verdict

The income statement matters most for assessing TPG because its core performance is driven by fee and performance allocation revenues that flow directly through the income statement, and the firm's non-GAAP earnings metrics (FRE, DE) are derived from it.

Composite Trajectory: Improving

Annual revenues grew 33% to $4.67B in 2025 from $3.50B in 2024, driven by both fee growth (+16%) and capital allocation-based income (+59%). Net income attributable to TPG Inc. rose to $184.6M from $23.5M. Operating cash flow nearly doubled to $1.03B from $532M. Total assets expanded to $13.5B from $10.5B, with equity increasing to $4.14B from $3.59B. All three statements show improvement year-over-year.

2. Red Flags

• Performance allocation compensation expense surged 53% to $1.43B in 2025, tracking the 55% increase in performance allocations revenue, indicating high variable compensation tied to fund performance (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations).
• Accrued performance allocation compensation liability grew to $5.40B at year-end 2025 from $4.38B at year-end 2024, representing a large contingent obligation to partners and professionals (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition).
• Net income attributable to TPG Inc. ($184.6M) remained a small fraction of total net income ($599.6M) due to significant non-controlling interest allocations ($364.2M to other non-controlling interests and $50.8M to TPG Operating Group) (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations).
• Tax Receivable Agreement liability increased 60% to $495.1M at December 31, 2025 from $308.9M at December 31, 2024, reflecting future cash obligations from Common Unit exchanges (10-K FY2025, MD&A Tax Receivable Agreement).
• Potential clawback exposure of $2.46B if all remaining investments were deemed worthless, up from $2.14B at end of 2024 (10-K FY2025, MD&A Additional Contingent Obligations).

3. Earnings Assessment (Income Statement)

Earnings Trajectory: Improving

Total revenues increased 33% to $4.67B in 2025 from $3.50B in 2024, with fees and other up 16% to $2.42B and capital allocation-based income up 59% to $2.25B (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). Total expenses rose 14% to $4.09B, driven by a 53% jump in performance allocation compensation to $1.43B, partially offset by a 19% decline in equity-based compensation to $813.7M (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). Income before taxes swung to a $666.6M gain from a $24.8M loss, and net income attributable to TPG Inc. rose to $184.6M from $23.5M (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Operations). Fee-Related Earnings (non-GAAP) grew 25% to $952.6M and Distributable Earnings grew 16% to $1.04B (10-K FY2025, MD&A Non-GAAP Financial Measures).

4. Cash Generation Assessment (Statement of Cash Flows)

Cash Trajectory: Improving

Net cash provided by operating activities nearly doubled to $1.03B in 2025 from $532M in 2024, driven by higher performance allocation and co-investment proceeds of $2.29B versus $1.46B (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Investing cash outflows increased to $264M from $44M, primarily due to the $235M Peppertree acquisition (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Financing cash outflows widened to $750M from $345M, reflecting higher dividend/distribution payments of $1.23B versus $832M and $191M in withholding taxes on equity awards versus $68M (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows). Cash and equivalents ended at $839M, up modestly from $821M (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows).

5. Balance Sheet Assessment

Balance Sheet Trajectory: Improving

Total assets grew 28% to $13.5B at December 31, 2025 from $10.5B a year earlier, led by a 23% increase in investments to $9.21B from $7.50B and a 165% rise in right-of-use assets to $552M from $209M due to a new office lease (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition). Debt obligations increased 34% to $1.72B from $1.28B following the $500M 2036 Senior Notes issuance (10-K FY2025, MD&A Liquidity and Capital Resources). Accrued performance allocation compensation rose 23% to $5.40B from $4.38B (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition). Total equity expanded 15% to $4.14B from $3.59B, with non-controlling interests growing to $2.95B from $2.81B (10-K FY2025, Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition).

6. Data Gaps

• Quarterly GAAP income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet data for Q1 2025, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2026 to enable quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year quarterly trend analysis.
• Full 10-Q filings for Q1 2026, Q2 2026, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 (only the 10-K was provided in full; the 10-Qs were listed but not included in the filings text).
• Segment-level revenue and expense detail for quarters (the 10-K provides annual platform-level management fees and performance allocations, but quarterly platform data is absent).
• Realized vs. unrealized performance allocation breakdown for quarters (annual data shows realized $1.17B and unrealized $843M in 2025).
• Quarterly AUM and FAUM rollforwards (annual rollforwards provided for 2025 and 2024 only).